AUS vs ENG Match Prediction : 4th Match, The Ashes, 2025-26
AUS vs ENG Win Probability
60%
Australia
9%
Draw
31%
England
Australia To Win, 1.50
Australia have won their last 4 Tests at the MCG
England have managed just one win at this venue since 1998. It looks short of ideas and is doubting its style of play coming into this match.
Australia's bowling lineup, led by Starc, has been unstoppable. The absence of Cummins and Lyon is not expected to hurt Australia too much.
AUS vs ENG Betting Tips
Australia total runs before fall of 1st wicket – Over 27.5
Travis Head and Jake Weatherald have been rock-solid at the top for Australia, providing blistering starts in both games they’ve opened. They’ve crossed 27.5 runs in each of their last two first innings, showcasing strong early partnerships and attacking intent. With their current form and home advantage, we’re backing them to easily surpass that mark again.
Mitchell Starc to be Australia’s best bowler in the 1st innings
Mitchell Starc is in devastating rhythm, leading the tournament with 22 wickets. His ability to swing the new ball and dismantle England’s top order has been unmatched. Given his track record against the English lineup and pace-friendly MCG conditions, Starc looks primed for another fiery spell.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Australia
N/A
England
N/A
With the Ashes already retained, Australia will enter the Boxing Day Test full of momentum and confidence. Expect them to go hard from the start and keep their winning streak intact.
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Australia vs England Head-to-Head Record
The two sides have clashed in 364 matches to date. Australia lead with 155 wins, while England have claimed 112 victories. The remaining 97 games ended in draws — a testament to how competitive this rivalry has always been.
Australia vs England Live-streaming and Broadcast
India: Star Sports Network (TV), JioHotstar (stream)
Australia: Channel 7 / 7plus (free), Kayo Sports / Foxtel
Pakistan: PTV Sports (TV), Tapmad TV (stream)
Bangladesh: Gazi TV
UK: TNT Sports (TV), Discovery+ (stream)
USA: Willow TV (TV), Fubo (stream)
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
AUS vs ENG Team Previews
Australia
Australia have been simply unstoppable in this Ashes series. Three wins in three have sealed the urn for a fifth consecutive time, but they’re not taking their foot off the pedal. Steve Smith’s men are hungry for a clean sweep.
The squad remains largely unchanged, with Jhye Richardson replacing Pat Cummins (rested) and Todd Murphy likely stepping in for the injured Nathan Lyon. Smith and Marnus Labuschagne anchor a strong batting order featuring Travis Head, Weatherald, and Usman Khawaja, while Mitchell Starc leads the pace attack with lethal intent.
Australia enters the Boxing Day Test with an unassailable 3-0 series lead, having retained the Ashes in record time after just 11 days of cricket. They are clearly the team to back and look to have all the momentum on their side.
Australia Expected Playing 11
Steve Smith (C), Travis Head, Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne, Alex Carey (WK), Usman Khawaja, Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Jhye Richardson, Cameron Green, Todd Murphy
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England
England’s campaign has been one to forget — three heavy defeats have left them searching for answers. With the pressure of the series result gone, Ben Stokes might push his men to play with freedom and aggression this time around.
A few changes could be on the cards. Ollie Pope’s poor run might cost him his place, with Gus Atkinson potentially replacing Josh Tongue in the bowling attack. The batting order of Crawley, Duckett, Root, and Brook needs to fire if England are to challenge the hosts.
England's dismal 0-3 series deficit, capped by heavy defeats, underscores their 18-match winless streak in Australia—the longest for any team there. Coupled with a poor MCG record (just 2 wins in their last 7 visits) and ongoing batting collapses, backing them is simply not worth the risk.
England Expected Playing 11
Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Joe Root, Jamie Smith (WK), Ben Stokes (C), Harry Brook, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Jofra Archer, Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson
AUS vs ENG Toss Prediction
Out of the last 10 Tests at the MCG, teams batting first have won 5, while 4 were won chasing. With the surface expected to assist pacers early, winning the toss and batting first could be a key advantage.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Expect a lively green top with an even grass cover — perfect for fast bowlers early on. Batters will need to weather the initial storm before cashing in once the pitch flattens out. The average first-innings score sits around 310.
Conditions should remain partly cloudy with temperatures between 25°C and 30°C. A light shower could disrupt play on the final day, but overall we anticipate a result-oriented pitch.
AUS vs ENG: Who Will Win?
All signs point to another dominant display from the Aussies. They’ve been ruthless in every department — batting depth, pace attack, and home advantage make them the clear favorites. England, on the other hand, have failed to click as a unit.
Bet on Australia to win.
