NZ vs AUS Match Prediction : 1st T20, Australia tour of New Zealand, 2025

Home advantage may not prove to count for much against an Australian outfit that has been on fire, especially against a powerhouse South African T20I side. The Australians have come off the back of an exciting series victory against their South African rivals. New Zealand, although currently on a great run of form, seems to hit a massive roadblock when coming against their Trans-Tasman opposition.

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New Zealand vs Australia Head-to-Head Record

The away team won the previous T20I series three-nil. Over the past five T20I games, Australia has won four times and New Zealand has only won once.

New Zealand vs Australia Live-streaming and Broadcast

The first T20I between New Zealand and Australia at Bay Oval will be held on Wednesday, 1 October 2025. In India, the match will be broadcast on the Sony Sports Network and available on the SonyLIV app.

You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.

NZ vs AUS Team Previews

New Zealand

New Zealand’s side is not short on experience, but lacks the explosiveness seen in the best T20 sides. Overall, the Black Caps seem to be coming up against a mammoth task in the well-oiled Australian machine.

Tim Seifert and Devon Conway offer stability, but they both lack killer instinct in pressure situations. Seifert has run into trouble against Australia with an average just under 7.5 and a strike rate below 80.

Rachin Ravindra and Mark Chapman are promising, but they have blown hot and cold too often to be reliable. Chapman only has a highest score of 18 not out against this opposition. The fragilities in the batting lineup were highlighted when the side was bowled out for 102 runs in the second T20I against Australia in 2024.

Zakary Foulkes is untested at this level. Relying on Ish Sodhi’s leg-spin in batter-friendly conditions could be problematic. Matt Henry and Jacob Duffy are solid picks for the longer formats, but T20Is are a different beast.

The bowling lineup has proven that even when the team gets runs on the board, 215 for three against Australia in the first T20I last year, it can still concede defeat. Two bowlers went for more than 50 runs and two bowlers went for more than 40 runs in that game.

New Zealand Expected Playing 11

Tim Seifert (wk), Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Mark Chapman, Daryl Mitchell, Michael Bracewell (c), Kyle Jamieson, Zakary Foulkes, Ish Sodhi, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy

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Australia

Australia's batting is exceptionally strong, especially in good batting conditions. Mitchell Marsh will look to impose himself this series. He was player-of-the-series against New Zealand in 2024. Travis Head’s recent white-ball form has been electric. His dynamism shone through with a composed 33 runs in the final T20I of the previous series against the Black Caps.

With the ever-dangerous Glenn Maxwell lurking in the middle order, Australia’s batting order looks primed to dominate.

Middle-order muscle comes courtesy of some of the biggest T20 hitters in Marcus Stoinis and Tim David. With more than 300 runs and a strike rate of nearly 200 in his last eight T20Is, Tim David will be a scary sight. Mitchell Owen adds new excitement to the lineup.

Josh Hazlewood’s precision with the new ball and Adam Zampa’s crafty leg-spin give Australia control in key phases both during and shortly after the powerplay. The pair took a tidy two wickets each in the team’s previous match.

Sean Abbott and Ben Dwarshuis bring diversity and depth to a sharp pace attack. The squad has plenty of bowling choice with all-rounders Marsh, Head, Owen, Stoinis and Maxwell all capable of putting their hands up with the ball too.

Australia Expected Playing 11

Mitchell Marsh (c), Travis Head, Mitchell Owen, Marcus Stoinis, Tim David, Glenn Maxwell, Alex Carey (wk), Sean Abbott, Ben Dwarshuis, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood

NZ vs AUS Toss Prediction

The choice at the toss could be one-way traffic for both captains. No team has ever won when chasing at this venue. Captains Bracewell and Marsh could be eager to bat first. The previous match at the ground had a victory margin of 115 runs.

Pitch Report and Weather Conditions

October’s moisture and cooler temperatures at this venue could tilt the advantage toward seamers early on. The pitch may retain some dampness to aid swing and seam movement in the powerplay. Disciplined bowling in the first six overs will be key to restricting the batters. Once the pitch settles, the batters could score freely. New Zealand scored 220 for six in the previous match at this ground.

Expect cool conditions on a cloudy day at Bay Oval, with moderate temperatures being forecasted. The chance of rain is a low six percent.

NZ vs AUS: Who Will Win?

Australia has a clear edge over New Zealand, with a squad that is quickly finding its team chemistry. The conditions in New Zealand are not too far removed from those in Australia, meaning the visitors will feel right at home. The home side has not played a T20I since July, so the group has had a decent amount of time away from each other.

Bet on Australia to win.

Pro Tip: Two markets that you can look for here are the 'Total Sixes' and the 'Team with Most Sixes' Market. History suggests that going 'Over' for both is the way to go here. You can also look at 'Runs Scored in Highest Scoring Over of Match'. I think the likelihood of a 20+ run over in this match is very high.

NZ vs AUS win percentage stands at 63% in favor of AUS.

Todays Match Prediction: Australia to Win.