Scheduled
Australia
Starts in
4 days
India
Australia To Win, 1.533
Both teams' batting has been below par but Australia will feel more confident with Smith and Head back in the runs
India's reliance on Jasprit Bumrah is troublesome whereas Australia has Scott Boland to replace Josh Hazelwood
Australia has won 4 of its last 5 Test matches at the MCG
Virat Kohli hasn’t been in the best of form this year, averaging just over 25 in the 9 games played in 2024. Regarding his performance in the first innings, Kohli has failed to score 28 or more runs in 7 of his last 8 games and we expect his poor form to continue.
Australia is expected to start this game with a new opening pair of Usman Khawaja and Sam Konstas. Khawaja has a good record at the MCG, where he is averaging over 42 runs, while Konstas has been in good form in the domestic circuit. We are, therefore, expecting a good start for the home team.
With the 5-match series hanging in the balance, Australia will take on India for the 4th Test match on Boxing Day. Both teams look to claim an unassailable advantage. The match will start on Thursday at the iconic MCG.
To date, the two teams have played 110 matches. Australia won 46 while India won 33. Another 30 games ended in a draw, while one was a tie.
This match will be live-streamed on the Disney+ Hotstar App. One can also watch it live on the Star Sports Network.
Australia has been a solid performer in this series and was the favorite to win the previous match. However, frequent rain interruptions forced the match to end in a draw.
That said, Australia’s gameplay hasn’t been without its flaws. The top order has failed to fire so far. Usman Khawaja is averaging just 12.60 in the 6 innings he has played, while Nathan McSweeney, who made his Test debut, is slightly better at 14.40.
This has led to the latter’s omission from the next two matches and he will be replaced by Sam Konstas. Konstas enjoyed a purple patch in the Sheffield Shield and scored a century in the practice game against India. He has yet to come across Jasprit Bumrah, though, and as we have seen, that is not an easy task for someone starting out.
Marnus Labuschagne and Mitchell Marsh are also struggling, putting added pressure on the two in-form batsmen, Travis Head and Steve Smith. Australia's batting is jittery and can be put under pressure.
In the pace department, Josh Hazlewood will be unavailable due to an injury and it will most likely be Scott Boland who will join Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins in the pace department. Both Starc and Cummins have been brilliant in the series so far while Boland was also very good with the pink ball.
A look at Scott Boland's record at the MSG shows that he loves bowling at this venue and we don't think Australia is going to miss Josh Hazelwood.
Nathan Lyon will retain his place and is expected to play a bigger role after the third day of cricket.
India will be pretty happy with the drawn game at The Gabba, especially after a poor performance in the first innings. The team needs to work out plenty of problems and come out stronger to keep the series alive.
The batting has been an Achilles heel for the visitors. Yashasvi Jaiswal and Virat Kohli struck a century in the first match but other than that, their contribution has been minimal. The previous game would have ended in a disaster for India if not for some gritty batting by KL Rahul and Ravindra Jadeja, as well as a late cameo from Akash Deep.
Rohit Sharma’s average in his 3 innings is just over 6 runs, while Shubman Gill has been found struggling as well. Nitish Reddy and Rishabh Pant have played well in patches but there is only so much that they can do in the absence of a good start.
The MCG has been bouncy and quick over the last couple of seasons. Expect another stern test for the Indian batting in this match.
In the bowling department, Jasprit Bumrah has been phenomenal throughout this series and is the leading wicket-taker with 21 wickets. He has been ably supported by Mohammed Siraj and Akash Deep. We don't think India will change its bowling lineup for this match.
The spinners however have struggled but Ravindra Jadeja should be able to keep his place, largely thanks to his batting prowess.
The team winning the toss will likely opt to field first. The last three matches at the MCG have seen the team win the toss and field first.
The pitch at the MCG has changed dramatically over the last three seasons. From being a traditionally slow pitch that struggled to produce results, the MCG has transformed into a fast-bowling paradise. There is pace and bounce to rival the Gabba and it will be hard work for the batters.
The average first-inning score here is around 310 and anything over 200 will be difficult to chase in the 4th innings. The weather will be bright and clear for the first two days, however, some clouds are expected over the weekend.
Australia and India have been close competitors over this series, as a 1-1 scoreline suggests. However, after starting strong, India has not been able to consistently have the upper hand. Australia was hamstrung by the weather in Brisbane and seemed to be the better team. India's reliance on Jasprit Bumrah is clear to see as are the cracks in the batting lineup of both teams.
A close contest is likely but Australia has more weapons in its arsenal. It is also due to win a toss sometime soon!
Bet on Australia to win.
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