ST vs MR Match Prediction : 33rd Match, Big Bash League, 2025-2026
ST vs MR Win Probability
42%
Sydney Thunder
58%
Melbourne Renegades
Melbourne Renegades To Win, 1.70
The Renegades sit above the Thunder on the current BBL points table, showing they come into this match with greater form and confidence
Rengades have an aggressive opening pair that is well suited to exploiting the powerplay
Sydney Thunder continue to rely heavily on David Warner, with limited support elsewhere
ST vs MR Betting Tips
Sydney Thunder to hit a boundary four in the first over
David Warner’s current form suggests early fireworks. The left-hander is coming off a century followed by two consecutive half-centuries and looks locked in from ball one. At his home ground, with fielding restrictions in place, Warner is highly likely to find the fence inside the first over. This is a low-risk market built around form, venue, and batting intent.
David Warner to score more than 28.5 runs Odds: 1.54
Warner is enjoying one of the best seasons of his BBL career. He has amassed 323 runs in 7 innings, averaging over 60 at a strike rate close to 150. He has been Thunder’s backbone and is consistently facing enough deliveries to convert starts into substantial scores. On a ground that rewards timing and placement, this line remains very achievable.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Sydney Thunder
Melbourne Renegades
Neither side has been at its best in recent outings, but Melbourne Renegades appear the more balanced of the two. Sydney Thunder’s over-dependence on Warner has resulted in competitive starts but ultimately underwhelming totals. In contrast, the Renegades have shown greater depth across their lineup, making them the stronger betting option in what should be a closely fought contest.
Also Check: Today's Cricket Betting Rates
Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Renegades Head-to-Head Record
Sydney Thunder have won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Melbourne Renegades, with one match abandoned without a ball bowled. The Renegades claimed one narrow victory during this period. While Thunder hold a slight edge historically, current form and squad balance favour the visitors.
Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Renegades Live-streaming and Broadcast
In Australia, the Big Bash League is broadcast on Channel 7 and Fox Cricket, with live streaming options available through Kayo Sports, Foxtel Go, and 7plus.​
For viewers in the Indian subcontinent, coverage in India is available on the Star Sports Network and streamed via Disney+ Hotstar. Fans in Pakistan can watch the matches on PTV Sports and Ten Sports, while those in Bangladesh can also tune in via the Star Sports Network feeds.​
In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports Cricket holds the exclusive broadcast rights, allowing fans to stream the action live on Sky Go and NOW.
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
ST vs MR Team Previews
Sydney Thunder
Sydney Thunder’s recent performances have followed a familiar pattern—David Warner doing the bulk of the scoring while the rest of the lineup struggles to provide sustained support. Against Brisbane Heat, Warner’s 82 anchored the innings, but only modest contributions from Sam Billings (34) and Nic Maddinson (21) helped them reach 180/6.
The bowling, however, failed to back up that total. Brisbane raced to 59 inside the first four overs and completed the chase in just 16.2 overs. Chris Green stood out with an economical 1 for 28, but the rest of the attack—Willey, Hadley, Agar, Sams, and Sangha—conceded heavily at over 10 runs per over.
Thunder’s inability to deliver complete team performances continues to hurt their campaign. Without greater batting support for Warner and tighter bowling in the powerplay, they remain vulnerable against stronger, more balanced sides.
Sydney Thunder Expected Playing 11
Matthew Gilkes, David Warner (c), Cameron Bancroft, Sam Billings (wk), Nic Maddinson, Daniel Sams, Chris Green, David Willey, Tanveer Sangha, Ryan Hadley, Wes Agar
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Melbourne Renegades
Despite falling short in the Melbourne derby, the Renegades showed enough promise to suggest a turnaround is near. Their total of 166/7 was competitive, with Josh Brown’s commanding 80 off 50 setting the platform. Support from Jake Fraser-McGurk, Mohammad Rizwan, and Hassan Khan ensured regular momentum throughout the innings.
The batting lineup looks deeper and more adaptable than Thunder’s, with players like Tim Seifert also capable of game-changing knocks—having already recorded the first century of the tournament.
While the bowling unit conceded the chase inside 16 overs, there were encouraging signs. Will Sutherland maintained control with an economy of 7.5, and Hassan Khan impressed with 1 for 20 in three overs. With Behrendorff and Sandhu offering experience and variety, the Renegades appear better equipped to exploit conditions at Sydney Showground.
Melbourne Renegades Expected Playing 11
Josh Brown, Tim Seifert, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Caleb Jewell, Hassan Khan, Will Sutherland (c), Gurinder Sandhu, Brendan Doggett, Jason Behrendorff, Callum Stow
ST vs MR Toss Prediction
All three tosses at this venue this season have seen captains choose to bowl first. With the pitch tending to slow later and modest par scores, chasing offers a tactical advantage. Expect the winning captain to opt to field.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Sydney Showground Stadium traditionally produces lower-scoring games compared to other BBL venues. The average first-innings score sits around 150, making timing and placement more valuable than brute force.
Bowlers who vary pace, use cutters, and target the square boundaries tend to succeed, while spinners often play a key role through the middle overs. A slight chance of morning rain could leave residual moisture in the surface, further assisting seamers early.
Conditions will be warm but moderated by a light breeze.
ST vs MR: Who Will Win?
Neither team has been dominant, but Melbourne Renegades have shown greater balance across departments. If their top order capitalises in the powerplay, they are well placed to control the match. Sydney Thunder’s continued reliance on Warner, combined with an inconsistent bowling attack, makes them a riskier betting proposition.
Bet on Melbourne Renegades to win.
