ST vs BH Match Prediction : 9th Match, Big Bash League, 2025-2026
ST vs BH Win Probability
51%
Sydney Thunder
49%
Brisbane Heat
Brisbane Heat To Win, 1.95
Sydney Thunder are rooted to the bottom of the table and badly out of rhythm after consecutive losses.
Brisbane Heat are coming off a record 258‑run chase against the Perth Scorchers, an eight‑wicket statement that has supercharged their confidence.
The Heat have made a habit of beating the Thunder in recent seasons and hold a clear mental edge in this rivalry.
ST vs BH Betting Tips
David Warner to score more than 23.5 runs
David Warner remains the Thunder’s biggest batting asset and the player most likely to steady a fragile top order. With his experience, shot range and history of scoring heavily against Brisbane – including a half‑century earlier this year – this line sits in a very attackable zone for a batter of his class. Back him to clear 23.5 if he gets even a half‑decent start.
Total runs in the first over for Sydney Thunder to be under 7.5 runs
Sydney Thunder’s opening pair of Sam Konstas and Matthew Gilkes are still finding their feet at BBL level and are more likely to start cautiously than go all‑out from ball one. With limited proven Powerplay firepower and just six runs scored in the first over against Heat in their recent meeting, the indicators point towards another relatively quiet opening over from the Thunder.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Sydney Thunder
Brisbane Heat
After rewriting the record books with a historic chase of 258 against the Scorchers, Brisbane Heat arrive in Canberra full of belief and batting swagger. Sydney Thunder, in contrast, are scrambling for form at the wrong end of the table and now face an opponent that has dominated them both home and away in recent years.
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Sydney Thunder vs Brisbane Heat Head-to-Head Record
Brisbane Heat are on a roll against Sydney Thunder, winning each of the last four clashes between the sides.
Sydney Thunder vs Brisbane Heat Live-streaming and Broadcast
In Australia, the Big Bash League is broadcast on Channel 7 and Fox Cricket, with live streaming options available through Kayo Sports, Foxtel Go, and 7plus.​
For viewers in the Indian subcontinent, coverage in India is available on the Star Sports Network and streamed via Disney+ Hotstar. Fans in Pakistan can watch the matches on PTV Sports and Ten Sports, while those in Bangladesh can also tune in via the Star Sports Network feeds.​
In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports Cricket holds the exclusive broadcast rights, allowing fans to stream the action live on Sky Go and NOW.
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
ST vs BH Team Previews
Sydney Thunder
This home game against the Heat already feels like a must‑win for the Thunder as they try to rescue a stuttering campaign. They have started BBL|15 with back‑to‑back defeats and look short of both confidence and cohesion in key phases.
The batting unit leans heavily on the experience of David Warner, Cameron Bancroft and Sam Billings to post competitive totals. Until the opening pair of Konstas and Gilkes convert potential into runs, the middle order is under constant pressure to repair slow starts.
There is enough talent in the middle to go big, but too many promising platforms have fizzled out before really hurting the opposition.
With the ball, the Thunder have struggled for consistency and penetration. Spinners Tanveer Sangha and Chris Green may find it hard to keep powerful Heat batters quiet through the middle overs if they miss their lengths. The recent figures of Reece Topley and Nathan McAndrew going for over 40 runs each, plus Daniel Sams and Shadab Khan conceding 30+ apiece, underline how urgently the home attack needs to tighten up.
Sydney Thunder Expected Playing 11
Sam Konstas, Matthew Gilkes, David Warner (c), Cameron Bancroft, Sam Billings (wk), Shadab Khan, Daniel Sams, Chris Green, Nathan McAndrew, Tanveer Sangha, Reece Topley.
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Brisbane Heat
Brisbane Heat enter this contest riding the high of a record‑breaking run chase against the Perth Scorchers, where Matt Renshaw and Jack Wildermuth both blasted unforgettable centuries. That stunning eight‑wicket win, sealed while chasing 258, has instantly transformed their season narrative and showcased frightening batting depth.
Their ultra‑aggressive approach has delivered nearly 200 runs in their opening game and a 250‑plus chase in the second, proving that this batting order can overwhelm most attacks when conditions are flat. Even with captain Nathan McSweeney unable to bat in that last match, the Heat still cruised home, underlining just how deep the lineup runs.
With the ball, the Heat are still searching for their best rhythm, but there is genuine quality in the attack. Shaheen Shah Afridi brings world‑class new‑ball threat, while Xavier Bartlett and Matthew Kuhnemann offer balance between seam and spin. A standout positive from the record chase was every bowler picking up at least one wicket, hinting at a unit that can create chances even on batting‑friendly surfaces.
Brisbane Heat Expected Playing 11
Colin Munro, Jack Wildermuth, Matt Renshaw, Max Bryant, Hugh Weibgen, Nathan McSweeney (c), Xavier Bartlett, Jimmy Peirson (wk), Shaheen Shah Afridi, Liam Haskett, Matthew Kuhnemann.
ST vs BH Toss Prediction
At Manuka Oval, captains often lean towards bowling first to get a read on conditions and then back their batters to chase under lights. Given that the Heat’s only win this season has come when bowling first – including their dismantling of Thunder earlier in the year – expect the visitors to choose to field if the coin falls their way.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Manuka Oval is generally a batting‑friendly venue, with a first‑innings average around the mid‑160s and plenty of value for strong stroke‑makers. New‑ball seamers can find movement early, but once the shine wears off, set batters can cash in, especially square of the wicket.
Spinners remain a factor through the middle overs but need accuracy to avoid punishment. Chasing under lights is usually enjoyable, with the ball coming nicely onto the bat.
Canberra is forecast to be sunny and warm through the day with some humidity in the evening, and only a slim chance of rain, so a full 40‑over contest is expected.
ST vs BH: Who Will Win?
The Heat’s bowlers still have areas to tidy up, but their explosive batting display against the Scorchers has sent a clear warning to the rest of the league. When they get on a roll, they can blow games open in a handful of overs. Sydney Thunder, on the other hand, are battling for confidence after conceding close to 200 and being bowled out in their derby, and now face a side that has repeatedly had their number.
All signs point to Brisbane’s superior form, batting depth and recent head‑to‑head dominance giving them the edge in Canberra.
Bet on Brisbane Heat to win.
