MS vs ST Match Prediction : 14th Match, Big Bash League, 2025-2026
MS vs ST Win Probability
56%
Melbourne Stars
44%
Sydney Thunder
Sydney Thunder To Win, 2.20
The Sydney Thunder completed the double over the Stars last season, winning both home and away fixtures.
After a slow start, the Thunder has found its groove, coming off a confidence-boosting win against the Brisbane Heat.
The Stars won their previous match but we think they still have some serious issues with their top order to solve
MS vs ST Betting Tips
Sydney Thunder not to have a dismissal in the first over
The Thunder’s batting lineup has been resilient at the top, posting two scores of 180 or more this season largely due to solid starts. The surface at Manuka offers true bounce, making it difficult for bowlers to threaten the stumps early. Backing the openers to survive the first six balls is a low-risk, high-probability selection.
otal runs in the match to be over 310.5 runs
This market offers exceptional value given the batting-friendly characteristics of Manuka Oval. History suggests a high-scoring affair; the last time these two sides met in Canberra, the match produced a staggering 346 runs. With both teams boasting top-orders that have found their rhythm recently, backing a run-fest is a logical play.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Melbourne Stars
Sydney Thunder
After a few early season hiccups, the Sydney Thunder appears to be back on track. Led by the aggressive David Warner, they have the firepower to dismantle a Stars lineup that is currently lacking confidence.
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Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder Head-to-Head Record
The Sydney Thunder has established complete dominance over the Melbourne Stars in recent years. The Thunder has won five consecutive matches against the Stars, a psychological edge that cannot be ignored.
Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder Live-streaming and Broadcast
In Australia, the Big Bash League is broadcast on Channel 7 and Fox Cricket, with live streaming options available through Kayo Sports, Foxtel Go, and 7plus.​
For viewers in the Indian subcontinent, coverage in India is available on the Star Sports Network and streamed via Disney+ Hotstar. Fans in Pakistan can watch the matches on PTV Sports and Ten Sports, while those in Bangladesh can also tune in via the Star Sports Network feeds.​
In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports Cricket holds the exclusive broadcast rights, allowing fans to stream the action live on Sky Go and NOW.
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
MS vs ST Team Previews
Melbourne Stars
Joe Clarke has yet to deliver the impact the Melbourne Stars were banking on. The overseas import suffered a duck against the Sydney Sixers and has managed just 43 runs in three innings. While Sam Harper smashed a brilliant maiden BBL ton against Sydney, his career average of just over 20 suggests he lacks the consistency required to carry the team alone.
The biggest concern lies in the middle order. The powerhouse duo of Marcus Stoinis and Glenn Maxwell were non-factors in the last game. Maxwell’s form is particularly worrying, with only 2 runs and 1 wicket to his name in three matches.
On the bowling front, Haris Rauf brings express pace but remains a high-risk asset; he conceded nearly 40 runs in his last outing. Tom Curran offers some hope with consecutive three-wicket hauls, but the rest of the attack feels patchwork. For the Stars to compete, Curran needs support, and the spinners need to control the middle overs better.
Melbourne Stars Expected Playing 11
Joe Clarke, Sam Harper (wk), Campbell Kellaway, Jonathan Merlo, Tom Curran, Marcus Stoinis (c), Glenn Maxwell, Hilton Cartwright, Mitchell Swepson, Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle
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Sydney Thunder
The Sydney Thunder enters this contest with history on their side and momentum building. Shadab Khan has adapted seamlessly to Australian conditions, contributing 75 runs in two innings and claiming 6 wickets. He forms a lethal spin trio alongside the promising Tanveer Sangha and the economical Chris Green.
The pace battery is equally balanced. Daniel Sams remains a threat with his cutters and variations, while the towering Reece Topley generates awkward bounce that troubles top-order batters.
The biggest positive for the Thunder is the form of their openers. Sam Konstas and Matthew Gilkes both struck half-centuries in the win against Brisbane, alleviating the pressure on the middle order. With David Warner coming off his best BBL season in 2024/25 (400+ runs), the batting lineup looks formidable and ready to exploit the Stars' bowling weaknesses.
Sydney Thunder Expected Playing 11
Sam Konstas, Matthew Gilkes, Sam Billings (wk), David Warner (c), Daniel Sams, Chris Green, Cameron Bancroft, Shadab Khan, Nathan McAndrew, Tanveer Sangha, Reece Topley
MS vs ST Toss Prediction
Night games at this venue generally favor the chasing side. Furthermore, the Thunder has won three of their last five encounters against the Stars by bowling first. Expect the captain winning the toss to field first.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Manuka Oval is widely regarded as one of the best batting wickets in the country. The surface offers true pace and consistent bounce, allowing batters to trust their shots and play through the line. Fast bowlers might find some swing with the new ball, but once the shine wears off, it is hard work.
The average first innings total here is 167, but given the firepower on display, a winning total will likely need to exceed 180 runs. The weather forecast is perfect—warm conditions, moderate humidity, and a slight breeze with no chance of rain.
MS vs ST: Who Will Win?
While the Melbourne Stars have the advantage of playing on home territory, their current form is disjointed and reliant on individual brilliance rather than team cohesion. In contrast, the Sydney Thunder is a unit on the rise, possessing a superior head-to-head record and a balanced attack. Given they were last year's runners-up and have rediscovered their winning touch, the value lies with the visitors.
Bet on Sydney Thunder to win.
