MS vs MR Match Prediction : 22nd Match, Big Bash League, 2025-2026
MS vs MR Win Probability
56%
MS
44%
MR
Melbourne Stars To Win, 1.69
The Stars know the MCG dimensions better than anyone, using the large boundaries to their advantage.
While the Stars have won four matches on the trot, the Renegades are reeling from three consecutive defeats and sit near the bottom of the table.
The Stars possess a middle order capable of blowing attacks away late in the innings, a luxury the fragile Renegades lineup currently lacks.
MS vs MR Betting Tips
Melbourne Renegades not to hit a boundary four in its first over
At 2.34, this bet offers immense value. The Renegades struggled to find fluency early in their last outing, conceding four dot balls in the opening over against the Sixers. Against the Stars' disciplined new-ball attack at the vast MCG, finding the rope immediately will be difficult. Backing a cautious start from a team low on confidence is a smart play.
Marcus Stoinis to score more than 21.5 runs
The Stars captain is in ominous touch. He started the tournament with an unbeaten 62 and added a solid 43 off 35 balls in his last outing. Playing at his home ground, the MCG—a surface that rewards his power-hitting game—Stoinis is a prime candidate to clear this modest line comfortably.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Melbourne Stars
Melbourne Renegades
The Stars are firm favorites to take bragging rights in the Melbourne derby. With their batting firing and bowlers executing plans, adding a fifth consecutive win seems the most likely outcome against a struggling Renegades outfit.
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Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades Head-to-Head Record
Historically, the derby is tight. In the last 10 meetings, the Renegades lead 6-4. However, the tide has turned recently, with the Stars winning both encounters last season, giving them the psychological upper hand.
Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades Live-streaming and Broadcast
In Australia, the Big Bash League is broadcast on Channel 7 and Fox Cricket, with live streaming options available through Kayo Sports, Foxtel Go, and 7plus.
For viewers in the Indian subcontinent, coverage in India is available on the Star Sports Network and streamed via Disney+ Hotstar. Fans in Pakistan can watch the matches on PTV Sports and Ten Sports, while those in Bangladesh can also tune in via the Star Sports Network feeds.
In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports Cricket holds the exclusive broadcast rights, allowing fans to stream the action live on Sky Go and NOW.
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
MS vs MR Team Previews
Melbourne Stars
The Stars look like genuine title contenders. Their formula of explosive starts, middle-order depth, and bowling variety is working perfectly.
In their last game at the Gabba, they hammered 195/6. The top order fired with 47/0 in the first four overs, led by Sam Harper (37 off 23). Marcus Stoinis (43) anchored the middle overs before Blake Macdonald provided a stunning finish with 37* off just 12 balls.
Although they narrowly failed to defend that total against the Heat, the bowling unit remains dangerous. Peter Siddle and Mitchell Swepson took two wickets each in key moments. The pace trio of Haris Rauf, Tom Curran, and Siddle gives them elite options for all phases of the innings.
Melbourne Stars Expected Playing 11
Sam Harper (wk), Thomas Rogers, Marcus Stoinis (c), Campbell Kellaway, Glenn Maxwell, Hilton Cartwright, Tom Curran, Blake Macdonald, Mitchell Swepson, Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle.
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Melbourne Renegades
The Renegades are in crisis mode, sitting near the bottom of the table with a 1-3 record. Their latest six-wicket loss to the Sixers marked their third straight defeat.
Batting instability is the core issue. Josh Brown (43) gave them a flyer last game, but once he fell, the innings crumbled. International stars Mohammad Rizwan and Tim Seifert failed to build momentum, leaving the lower order to scramble to a par score. They need their big names to stand up.
The bowling attack is also leaking runs. While Gurinder Sandhu and Will Sutherland found early swing, veterans Jason Behrendorff and Andrew Tye were expensive. Without tighter discipline, they will struggle to contain the Stars' power-hitters.
Melbourne Renegades Expected Playing 11
Josh Brown, Tim Seifert, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Jake Fraser-McGurk, Oliver Peake, Hassan Khan, Will Sutherland (c), Matthew Spoors, Andrew Tye, Gurinder Sandhu, Jason Behrendorff.
MS vs MR Toss Prediction
The Melbourne Stars have been a different beast when chasing, and they are unlikely to change a winning formula. Expect the captain winning the toss to bowl first to assess the conditions under lights before chasing.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
The MCG is famous for its massive square boundaries. Running hard between the wickets is just as important as hitting boundaries here. A first-innings score of 160-170 is par. Pacers can exploit the extra bounce, while spinners must use flight and guile to trap batters hitting into the deep pockets.
Weather: Conditions will be warm and humid. A slight 5% chance of rain is forecast but shouldn't impact the result.
MS vs MR: Who Will Win?
This is a mismatch in form and confidence. The Stars are playing like a well-oiled machine, dismantling teams with ease. The Renegades, conversely, are disjointed and struggling for consistency. At home, with momentum on their side, the Stars should be far too strong.
Bet on Melbourne Stars to win.
