AS vs MS Match Prediction : 10th Match, Big Bash League, 2025-2026
AS vs MS Win Probability
50%
Adelaide Strikers
50%
Melbourne Stars
Adelaide Strikers To Win, 1.80
Adelaide Strikers have a strong, varied bowling attack with Wood, Overton, Hasan Ali, and Pope better suited to exploiting home conditions than the Stars’ more pace-heavy unit.
In-form middle order (Scott, Overton, Ross) just chased 160 comfortably, showing deeper batting resilience than a Stars lineup still heavily reliant on Stoinis’ brilliance.
Advantage of home conditions is crucial and could help the Strikers edge this contest
AS vs MS Betting Tips
Matthew Short to score more than 23.5 runs
Short remains the heartbeat of the Strikers’ top order and is central to how deep they bat. He made a brisk 15 off 11 balls in the season opener and looks in good touch after a prolific last BBL campaign. Given his dual role as captain and opener on a familiar Adelaide Oval surface that usually rewards timing, this line sits in a very manageable range if he survives the first two overs.
Total sixes in the match to be over 11.5
Both teams are stacked with power hitters—Short, Lynn, Overton, and Scott for Adelaide; Stoinis, Clarke, Kellaway, and Maxwell for the Stars. Adelaide Oval has long been a favourable venue for stroke‑makers with a quick outfield and true bounce, and with both sides showing aggressive intent in their first games, a high six count is firmly on the cards.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Adelaide Strikers
Melbourne Stars
Adelaide Strikers launched their BBL|15 campaign with a confident chase of 160 against the Sydney Sixers, showcasing middle-order power and valuable late-order hitting. Melbourne Stars were just as impressive in their opener, hunting down 159 in only 16 overs against Hobart Hurricanes on the back of a Marcus Stoinis masterclass.
While the Stars have dominated this rivalry in recent years, Adelaide’s strong home record and better-balanced bowling attack at Adelaide Oval slightly tilt the scales in favour of the hosts.
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Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars Head-to-Head Record
Melbourne Stars hold the recent edge in this matchup, winning three of the last five meetings between these sides. However, the Strikers did win the most recent clash in December 2024 by 15 runs at Adelaide Oval, reminding punters that home advantage in this fixture is significant.
Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars Live-streaming and Broadcast
In Australia, the Big Bash League is broadcast on Channel 7 and Fox Cricket, with live streaming options available through Kayo Sports, Foxtel Go, and 7plus.
For viewers in the Indian subcontinent, coverage in India is available on the Star Sports Network and streamed via Disney+ Hotstar. Fans in Pakistan can watch the matches on PTV Sports and Ten Sports, while those in Bangladesh can also tune in via the Star Sports Network feeds.
In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports Cricket holds the exclusive broadcast rights, allowing fans to stream the action live on Sky Go and NOW.
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
AS vs MS Team Previews
Adelaide Strikers
This is a key early home fixture for the Strikers as they look to build momentum after a strong opening win and climb quickly into the top half of the table.
Chasing 160 against the Sixers, Adelaide slipped to 34 for 2 but recovered superbly thanks to Liam Scott’s 51 off 32 balls and Jamie Overton’s 30 off 20, before Luke Wood’s 18* off 14 closed out the chase with four balls to spare.
The batting spine of Short, Lynn, Sangha, Scott and Overton offers a blend of experience and intent, though there is still a slight concern at the top if Short and Lynn both fall early, as in the last match.
With the ball, the Strikers were efficient but still have room to tighten their death overs. Luke Wood (3 for 26) and Jamie Overton (2 for 22) were standouts with pace and accuracy, while Lloyd Pope’s leg-spin delivered two crucial wickets despite going for 25 in three overs.
Hasan Ali went wicketless but remains a proven death specialist, and if he finds his groove with the older ball, this attack can trouble an in-form Stars lineup.
Overall, Adelaide appear well balanced with multiple seam options and a capable leg-spinner, which is vital on a surface that can reward changes of pace and smart variations.
Adelaide Strikers Expected Playing 11
Matthew Short (c), Chris Lynn, Jason Sangha, Liam Scott, Alex Ross, Jamie Overton, Harry Nielsen (wk), Luke Wood, Hasan Ali, Henry Thornton, Lloyd Pope.
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Melbourne Stars
The Stars began their season in style, chasing 158 with ease and sending a clear message that their batting unit can dominate when conditions are in their favour.
Thomas Rogers (30 off 18) and Joe Clarke (20 off 20) laid a brisk platform before Campbell Kellaway (41* off 27) and Stoinis (62* off 31) motored to 159 for 2 in just 16 overs, barely giving the Hurricanes a look-in.
This top four, backed up by Sam Harper, Glenn Maxwell and Hilton Cartwright, makes the Stars one of the more intimidating batting lineups in BBL|15 when they keep wickets in hand.
With the ball, they restricted the Hurricanes to 158 for 9, with Peter Siddle taking 3 for 30 and Stoinis chipping in with 2 for 18, while Haris Rauf’s raw pace yielded 2 for 33. Tom Curran and Glenn Maxwell both provided handy overs, giving the captain multiple options to adapt if one bowler has an off night.
The question for the Stars will be how well this attack translates from the MCG to Adelaide Oval, where dimensions and bounce differ and where Short and Lynn can punish any errors in length.
Melbourne Stars Expected Playing 11
Thomas Rogers, Joe Clarke, Campbell Kellaway, Marcus Stoinis (c), Sam Harper (wk), Glenn Maxwell, Hilton Cartwright, Tom Curran, Mitchell Swepson, Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle.
AS vs MS Toss Prediction
Captains at Adelaide Oval often prefer to bowl first in night games to gauge conditions and then chase with the ball skidding on under lights.
Both teams won their opening fixtures while chasing, and with recent BBL trendlines also favouring the team batting second at this venue, expect the toss winner to opt for the field.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Adelaide Oval typically offers a true batting surface with good carry and a quick outfield, encouraging stroke‑play once batters adjust to the early bounce.
Weather in Adelaide on match day is expected to be warm and mostly clear with only a low chance of rain, so a full 40‑over contest is likely. Light evening breeze and mild humidity should make for pleasant playing conditions and could assist swing bowlers slightly under lights.
AS vs MS: Who Will Win?
The Stars enter this clash on the back of a dominant eight‑wicket win, fuelled by a red‑hot Marcus Stoinis and a confident top order, making them a very dangerous travelling side. Adelaide Strikers, however, have home advantage at a ground their bowling unit understands well, plus a middle order that just chased 160 comfortably and looks capable of absorbing pressure.
With the Stars historically ahead in the head‑to‑head but the Strikers winning the last meeting at this venue, this shapes as a tight contest, but the slight edge goes to the hosts due to better bowling depth and conditions familiarity.
Bet on Adelaide Strikers to win.
